The Alpha Model

What is it?

It’s Effie’s super secret Positive Expectation Value (+EV) model, which detects miscalculations in bookmaker odds.

The basic concept (without giving the model away 😉) is that Effie uses Pinnacle’s odds as a benchmark in her statistical analysis to identify mispriced bets. Over a large number of trials, probability dictates that the average return will be positive (hence +EV) i.e. you make 💸

  • Proprietary +EV model
  • High profit margins
  • Easy to use

How to use Effie Alpha

if you choose the Alpha Model, you will get access to the below Discord channel:

Automated messages

Contrary to the Arbitrage Model, the Alpha Model only requires 1 bet to be taken for each opportunity found.

Using the Pinnacle Reference section you should:

  • Check the games match

Double-check Effie’s Game matchups – If there’s a mismatch, ignore the false opportunity.

  • Check the Odds

Check that the Correct Odds are still accurate at pinnacle.com – If they are different, go to the calc. tools page to see if the new odds are still value or if the opportunity has passed.

How to take the bet:

Outcome indicates the bet to be placed for the listed game.

Ensure that Odds to take aligns with the odds on the bookmaker’s website.

  • If they are different, the bookmakers may have already corrected their mistake, and the opportunity has passed.
  • Go to the Calc. Tools page to check if the new odds are still value
  • Use the Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion advises on the optimal portion of your bankroll to invest for the suggested bet. It regulates the amount by which you can lose, ensures more stable, consistent profits and minimises bankroll volatility.

  • Unlike Arbitrage, which guarantees returns on individual opportunities, the Alpha Model focuses on long-term profitability.
  • This means that periods of loss are possible in the short-term. However, as you can see from the performance graph, probability dictates that these losses would be recouped and exceeded with continued betting on this model.

The Kelly Criterion advises on the optimal portion of your bankroll to invest for the suggested bet. It regulates the amount by which you can lose, ensures more stable, consistent profits and minimises bankroll volatility.

  • Unlike Arbitrage, which guarantees returns on individual opportunities, the Alpha Model focuses on long-term profitability.
  • This means that periods of loss are possible in the short-term. However, as you can see from the performance graph, probability dictates that these losses would be recouped and exceeded with continued betting on this model.

Try our 14-day free trial!

Still sceptical? I was too.

Check out the model’s live performance graphs as well as my own personal Effie portfolio performance on the home page before making a decision

Choose Alpha